伊拉克的什叶派：分裂的派系

伊拉克的逊尼派、什叶派和库尔德人间的和解和冲突后的治理挑战将成为该国政治议程的核心。本文认为，什叶派政治精英不太可能与逊尼派和库尔德人一同为伊拉克制定包容性协议。这一情况不利于伊拉克的未来团结。

原文标题：Iraq’s Shi’a: A house divided

中文摘要：荷兰国际关系研究所专家Erwin van Veen，Nick Grinstead和Floor El Kamouni-Janssen在《伊拉克的什叶派：分裂的派系》一文中表示，本文分析了1991-2016年期间伊拉克主要的什叶派政治团体间的关系和联盟建设情况。本文重点关注了伊拉克达瓦党、伊拉克伊斯兰最高委员会（ISCI）等派系，以及各种非正规团体。“伊斯兰国”即将被赶出摩苏尔。届时，伊拉克的逊尼派、什叶派和库尔德人间的和解和冲突后的治理挑战将成为该国政治议程的核心。伊拉克现由什叶派所支配。因此，其内部观点和关系对该国的未来十分重要。什叶派可以利用自身的优势推动包括逊尼派和库尔德人在内的“新伊拉克”的愿景，同时利用优势促进自身利益。什叶派的选择会对未来是否会出现另一个“伊斯兰国”的可能性产生影响。本文认为，什叶派政治精英不太可能与逊尼派和库尔德人一同为伊拉克制定包容性协议。这一情况不利于伊拉克的未来团结。

原文：

This online report analyses relation- and coalition-building between Iraq’s main Shi’a political groups from 1991 to 2016. It focuses on the Islamic Da’wa Party, the Sadrist Trend, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and Iraq’s various irregular forces. It is visualised in the form of short timeline.

The Islamic State will be ousted from Mosul in the near future. When this happens, the challenges of reconciliation and post-conflict governance between Iraq’s Sunni, Shi’a and Kurds will move to the heart of the country’s political agenda.

As the Iraqi state is dominated by its Shi’a, their internal views and relations matter greatly for the country’s future. They can use their dominance to push a vision for a ‘new Iraq’ that includes its Sunni and Kurds. They can also use their dominance to advance their own interests. The choice matters because it influences the likelihood of ‘another Islamic State’ emerging in a few years.

The report's main finding is that Iraq’s Shi’a political elites are unlikely to develop an inclusive deal for the country with its Sunni and Kurds. This does not bide well for Iraq’s future unity. The report can be read as a call for action to address the problems of political representation, coalition building and exercise of public authority.